The Brazilian Petroleum, Gas and Biofuels Institute (IBP), in partnership with Energy Research Office (EPE), organized the first edition of Cycle of Debates for the Energy Transition, on April 25. Focusing on the transition to a low carbon economy, the event brought together experts to discuss two of today’s major global challenges: the energy transition landscape and the energy geopolitics. To José Firmo, IBP president, this type of discussions creates opportunities to the sector.

“At the same way Brazil decides strategically to open the E&P market, that brought significant results, we need, as a country, to debate the inclusion of natural gas in the energy matrix. Brazil did not found an efficient model to use gas as fuel”, affirmed Firmo. “We have an opportunity to use associated gas to be produced in the next five years, for example, to the reindustrialization of Brazil”, added.

The continued growth of oil production in Brazil reinforces this opportunity. According to EPE Director of Petroleum, Gas and Biofuels Studies, José Mauro Coelho, the Brazilian oil production will double in the next few years, reaching 5 million barrels per day in 2030. “Brazil is expected to export about 3 million barrels of oil per day by the end of the decade. But on the other hand, we also have a competitive advantage in biofuels. Ethanol production is expected to grow, reaching 49 billion liters per year in 2030, compared to the current 34 billion liters. Just as biodiesel production will increase, from 5.4 billion liters to 11 billion liters”, explained Coelho.

Even the energy transition happens slowly over the years, Brazil has the advantage of possessing a renewable energy matrix. According to Luiz Augusto Barroso, PSR Consulting president, the pillars of renewability of the national matrix – hydroelectric, wind and solar – complement each other and constitutes a differentiated portfolio comparing to the rest of the world. “The core of our energy matrix is ​​the goal many countries dream of achieving in years. The big challenge at this moment, is to find business, financing and regulatory models for the energy transition”, said Barroso.

Alexandre Szklo, COPPE/UFRJ energy planning program associated-teacher, believes that Brazil has great competitiveness advantages comparing to other markets, but the country’s role in the world energy transition is relate to the need of have state policies for the sector rather than government policies. “We have a great potential energy matrix. We just need to draft the path to where we need it and we want to go”, added Szklo.

Market initiatives

The oil and gas companies have been preparing for the energy transition, investing in sources other than oil and positioning themselves as energy companies. To Flávio Rodrigues, Shell Director of Government Relations and Regulatory Affairs, the operator annual investment is about US$ 25 billion, with US$ 2 billion reserved for new energies.

For the executive, the main need competence for oil and gas companies to become more complete is the understanding of the local reality. “From the training of personnel to a greater understanding of issues such as regulation and local market, it is possible to make more assertive decisions”, affirmed Rodrigues.

The Cycle of Debates for the Energy Transition next edition, in June, will address climate change. In total, there will be five meetings throughout the year focused on the challenges of energy transition.

Esse foi o principal tema debatido durante o quarto e último Ciclo de Debates sobre Petróleo e Economia de 2017, realizado pelo Instituto Brasileiro de Petróleo, Gás e Biocombustíveis (IBP). “Não é um momento só de transição energética, mas também da entrada de novas tecnologias de forma muito mais rápida do que se imaginava. A robótica, a inteligência artificial e o big data já fazem parte da indústria de petróleo”, disse Helder Queiroz, professor do Instituto de Economia do Grupo de Economia da Energia da UFRJ (GEE/UFRJ).

Para Queiroz, o impacto dessas tecnologias no upstream, por exemplo, vai desde a gestão inteligente de sistemas complexos por meio da análise de dados até a ampliação do espectro das formas de automação, com particular ênfase na nova geração de soluções de robótica, passando também pela crescente sensorização dos equipamentos e introdução de novos materiais e nanomateriais. Já no downstream, a incorporação de novas tecnologias digitais permitiu a racionalização e a redução de custos operacionais na linha da Indústria 4.0.

“A tendência atual é o aperfeiçoamento das rotinas de manutenção preditiva. As oportunidades e desafios que emergem da aplicação de inovações e tecnologias no refino incluem a agilidade operacional, a construção de um modelo de gestão de dados e o planejamento e programação de todas as unidades que integram a refinaria de petróleo”, explicou o professor.

Prova concreta de todo o impacto positivo da introdução das tecnologias digitais na indústria brasileira é o Pré-Sal. Segundo José Carlos Tigre, assessor técnico da Agência Nacional de Petróleo, Gás Natural e Biocombustíveis (ANP), o desenvolvimento tecnológico foi e é fundamental para a viabilidade dessa importante região petrolífera do Brasil.

Desafios à frente

Por outro lado, Milton Costa Filho, secretário geral do IBP, lembrou que o Brasil está posicionado em 69º lugar no Global Innovation Index – muito atrás de países como Estados Unidos, Reino Unido, Suíça, Suécia e Holanda, que ocupam as cinco primeiras posições do ranking. “Precisamos discutir a eficácia dos recursos de pesquisa e desenvolvimento da indústria de petróleo que não podem ser usados em startups, por exemplo – o que traria um resultado significativo para o setor”, afirmou Costa Filho.

Eduardo Santos, gerente de relacionamento com a comunidade de C&T do CENPES/Petrobras, compartilha da mesma visão e entende que o acesso às startups é algo que ainda falta ao setor. “O que se quer com a cláusula de P&D não é apenas desenvolver o conhecimento na academia, mas também a nossa indústria através de projetos que alcancem a inovação, gerando um conteúdo local de base tecnológica. Nesse sentido, seria interessante alcançar as startups, que são empresas de base tecnológica, por exemplo”, ressaltou Santos.

Nos últimos 19 anos, foram gastos R$ 12 bilhões em 10 mil projetos de PD&I na indústria de petróleo. Desse total, mil projetos foram focados em infraestrutura e outros 250 em capacitação de recursos humanos. Para José Carlos Tigre é necessário incentivar atividades de pesquisas com níveis de maturidade mais altos, a fim de ter novos produtos no mercado. “Para isso, a ANP já está trabalhando na revisão da agenda regulatória, incluindo o regulamento de PD&I. O objetivo é melhorar o ambiente de negócios do setor e destravar investimentos no curto prazo”, completou.

Entre os desafios à frente, Telmo Ghiorzi, diretor da ABESPetro, apontou a redução dos custos de extração e o aumento do fator de recuperação, o que geraria uma produção maior de óleo – e mais barato – e aumentaria a participação do Brasil na indústria de petróleo mundial.

Segundo Ghiorzi, o Brasil tem bons ingredientes para enfrentar tais desafios e a saída está na formulação e implantação de uma política industrial baseada em inovação. “O Brasil não tem uma política industrial e é essencial que, ao ser criada, seja fundamentada na economia da inovação, visando o longo prazo e focada em perenidade e na robustez do setor”, explicou.

Em um vídeo-apresentação, Eduardo Soriano, coordenador-geral de Desenvolvimento e Inovação em Tecnologias Setoriais do Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia, Inovações e Comunicações (MCTIC), defendeu ainda a criação de um programa de recursos humanos de alta capacitação com foco em petróleo e gás, bem como parcerias de cooperação internacionais bem organizadas, como já existe com a Noruega e está em construção com o Reino Unido.

“The geological knowledge in Brazil is still relatively scanty. Brazilian upstream offers opportunities to companies with all profiles, beyond pre-salt large reserves. Assessing the regulation and the exploratory dynamics of different E&P environments, as well as its importance for the development of the industry, is essential”, says Homero Ventura, IBP’s Executive Manager of Technical E&P.

This second Cycle of Debates on Oil and Economy 2017 aims to debate with authorities and industry experts over the efforts and exploratory challenges in the country, trying to foster an attractive agenda for the various geological environments in the country.  The first edition of the event held early this year discussed the opportunities, challenges and perspectives for the gas sector. Two other editions will happen in the second semester.

Details on the event’s schedule and registration.

The Oil & Gas Secretary for the Ministry of Mines and Energy, Márcio Félix, pointed out that the government has launched the “Gas for Growth” program with a view to giving the best destination for the pre-salt production and stimulating its use, for example, in industry and in power generation, but always at competitive prices.

He said that, for such end, the regulatory changes required are under discussion and a broad debate among all links in the production chain is already underway in the subcommittees of the program. “We want to submit all the proposed amendments to the law that need to be passed by the Legislative Branch until May”, he said.

IBP’s Natural Gas Executive Secretary, Luiz Costamilan, pointed out that pre-salt gas is associated with oil. Therefore, he said, it is necessary to have “a firm destination” for the input, in order to make it competitive and ensure the continued production of oil.

“An alternative would be to operate some thermoelectric power stations at the base [without interruption], which becomes necessary due to the growth of wind farms and run-of-the-river hydropower plants, which are intermittent, despite operating at different cycles”, said the Executive Secretary.

According to Costamilan, in recent years of unfavorable hydrology, half of all the gas consumed in the country – about 100 million cubic meters/day – has already been geared towards thermoelectric power generation.

According to the executive, the gas market is under transformation with the sale of Petrobras assets and new rules for the sector are required mainly for transportation, offloading and processing of offshore gas production and taxation, with a view to developing the market and ensure the participation of several players, thus increasing competition.

In addition to Costamilan and Félix, the event was attended by Edmar de Almeida, professor of the Institute of Economics at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Thiago Barral, Generation Projects Superintendent for the Energy Research Company (EPE), Mauro Yuji Hayashi, Petrobras’ General E&P Design Manager, among other executives, experts and academicians.

Check out the schedule for the next Debate Series events in 2017:

June 30 | Attractiveness of the Brazilian Upstream Oil & Gas beyond the pre-salt

September 22 | Regulation of Decommissioning and its Impacts on Upstream Competitiveness in Brazil

December 1 | Supply of Liquid Fuels in Brazil: Opportunities, Challenges and Prospects